Гребель

In this in-depth discussion, Alexander Grable presents the findings from his paper Irretrievable Losses: Estimating Casualties on the Russo-Ukraine War, published by the Finnish National Defense University. Drawing on confirmed official data — including body exchanges, amputee figures, and cross-checked registries — he challenges the widespread claim that Russian casualties substantially exceed Ukrainian ones. The evidence points in the opposite direction: Ukrainian losses are far higher, with a ratio of at least ten times more Ukrainian dead than Russian. Importantly, this ten-times figure represents the lower end of the estimates drawn from confirmed like-for-like data, with some categories (such as amputees) indicating substantially higher multiples. The conversation examines the reliability of Russian and Ukrainian sources, problems with Western media and military journal reporting, the limitations of the Mediazona project’s “confirmed” figures, ammunition production disparities, and the broader economic and attritional realities of the war. Topics discussed: Testing the reliability of Russian sources against Ukrainian evidence (Kharkiv case study) Misidentification of vehicles and events in Western military journals (British Army Review example) Critique of Mediazona’s confirmed Russian death figures and verification against official registries Official Ukrainian amputee data and what it implies for killed-in-action estimates Body exchange ratios (approximately 12.5:1 overall) as a confirmed metric Russian ammunition production increases and their relationship to casualty ratios Economic sustainability, attrition warfare, and the limits of Ukrainian regeneration capacity Why continuing the war on current terms is not in Ukraine’s long-term interest Timestamps 0:00 – Introduction and paper overview 1:05 – Verifying Russian sources: the Kharkiv apartment block case 4:40 – British Army Review misidentifies a Ukrainian BTR-4 as Russian 6:30 – Mediazona’s “confirmed” figures and the notary registry problem 11:10 – Prisoner cohort data and what it reveals about monthly losses 13:00 – Official amputee figures and casualty ratios 19:00 – Russian hospital admissions and amputee comparisons 22:30 – Body exchange ratios over the course of the war 24:40 – Ammunition production increases and corroboration 31:50 – Deep-strike campaigns, Black Sea ports, and economic effects 43:00 – Battlefield performance, attrition, and concluding remarks Links Alexander Grable’s paper Irretrievable Losses: Estimating Casualties on the Russo-Ukraine War (Finnish National Defense University): https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/195520 Ian Proud – The Peace Monger: Substack https://substack.com/@thepeacemonger #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Casualties #IrretrievableLosses #AlexanderGrable #IanProud #Peace #Attrition #MilitaryAnalysis If you found this discussion useful, please consider subscribing to the channel for more in-depth analysis on the war, diplomacy, and the case for peace. New videos are posted regularly. Wherever you are in the world, whatever your nationality and religion, I wish you much peace.